GNY’s nano XNO Forecast Competition to Test the Wisdom of the Crowd in Financial Forecasting

Date: Monday December 11, 2023

GNY is exploring how “Wisdom of the Crowd” (WOTC) can improve the predictive power of its LSTM models that are used to predict the movements of top cryptocurrencies featured in its GNY Range Report. Our previous research article into WOTC predictions can be found HERE, and it provides important context on the mathematical theory, and how it may be used to help shape predictions.

Welcoming nano

To celebrate the addition of nano ($XNO) as the latest cryptocurrency to feature on the GNY Range Report, GNY is hosting a Wisdom of the Crowd competition for the nano community.

GNY’s LSTM model for nano is currently predicting the cryptocurrency’s price volatility with an impressively high accuracy rate. The historical accuracy chart and all the accompanying forecast and indicator charts for nano can be found on the GNY Range Report HERE.

During GNY’s previous WOTC experiment, the public’s guesses were able to predict the future price of BTC with a 99% accuracy rate, demonstrating a powerful data set for inclusion as a dataset within a predictive model, as well as a direct trading consideration. Based on WOTC theory and our own experience with this technique, GNY is incentivising participants in these WOTC experiments. This not only helps boost the number of submissions, but historically improves the accuracy of users’ predictions.

The nano Experiment

From 0001 UTC, Monday December 11, 2023 to 2359 UTC, Wednesday December 13, 2023 users are invited to guess the high and low price for nano of the day of December 18, 2023 as it will appear on binance.com.

The first 200 user submissions are rewarded with Airdrops of up to 300 $GNY BEP20 tokens. The closest guess within 3% of the actual closing prices, which will constitute an average of the MAPE of the high and low guess, will win 150 $XNO tokens. The winner of the nano WOTC competition as well as the overall results of the competition will be announced on the week of December 21, 2023.

The competition can be accessed at gnyrr.com/airdrop from 0001 UTC, Monday December 11, 2023.

GNY hopes to see a range of submission values that closely flank the future actual closing prices and that would come within 3% of the closing prices, as that is as good or better than our standard accuracy rate using our machine learning LSTM model for nano.

Update, January 16, 2024

This WOTC Experiment featuring XNO has now been completed. You can explore the results and their impact on predicting future price movements and volatility here: https://medium.com/gnylabs/wotc-experiment-ii-xno-data-suggests-improved-study-design-b8ba4d69cabc

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