GNY Wisdom of the Crowd Airdrop Campaign
October 23rd – 25th, 2023
Results and Findings
November 2nd, 2023
GNY has been excited to explore how “Wisdom of the Crowd” (WOTC) can improve the predictive power of our LSTM model that forecasts Bitcoin, Ethereum and other top cryptocurrencies in the GNY Range Report. Our previous articles on WOTC predictions can be found here, and provide important context on the mathematical theory, and how it may be used to help shape predictions.
For our first attempt to collect predictions from our “crowd” on a future price for Bitcoin we decided to incentivise participants. This not only helps boost the number of submissions, but historically improves the accuracy of users’ predictions. We incentivised user submissions with Airdrops of $GNY BEP20 tokens.
We were hoping to see a range of submissions values that closely flank the actual price and that would come within 3% of the closing price, as that is as good or better than our standard accuracy rate using our machine learning LSTM model for Bitcoin.
From Monday October 23rd, 2023 to Wednesday October 25th, 2023 users were invited to guess the closing price of Bitcoin on binance.com on midnight Friday October 27th, 2023. All times are in UTC.
During that 3-day period we had 206 predictions. Let’s explore how the data looks and how the time interval affects the average estimate of each day.
The closing price for Bitcoin on Friday October 27th, 2023 was $33,892.02 shown above as the solid red line. Of the 206 submissions, 56 came within 3% of the Friday close of BTC.
Our first observation was that the average accuracy of the group was higher than we anticipated. The average of all submissions was $32,415 making the average accuracy for the total guesses 96%. The data gets more interesting when you break it down to submission dates.
Monday’s submissions averaged at $31,168 giving an accuracy rate of 92%.
Tuesday’s submissions averaged at $33,090, – a 97.63% accuracy rate.
Wednesday’s average guess was $34,128 giving a 99% accuracy rate.
A 99% accuracy rate from a WOTC poll is pretty impressive. That beats our own machine learning’s average 7-day rate.
Here are the comparisons of the WOTC predictions vs. Fabian, GNY’s LSTM model. This chart sets out Fabian’s Relative Value predictions for the price on the 27th on the 23rd ($29,861), 24th ($33,0589) and 25th ($33,976). The chart shows a remarkably similar trend to the crowd generated data.
Out of 206 submissions, 183 users completed the email verification and social actions to qualify for $GNY Airdrops. This will result in a cumulative distribution of 39,450 $GNY BEP20 tokens. We will initiate these distributions later next week so watch your wallets.
And the winner is….
Coming in at $33,889, or $3.02 of the actual BTC closing price Friday, submission number 794 won the prize for best guess – at 99.988%. We are reaching out to them now to see if they are comfortable being made public, and if they have any tips to share with the GNY community.
A big thank you to everyone who participated and helped us with this experiment. Stay tuned for the next WOTC announcements, as we are definitely interested in running this again to expand our data pool.
For more about the Range Report, visit www.gnyrr.com.
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